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| CSIRO | SOLVE | Issue 6 Feb 06 | |
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ARTICLE
FORESTRY:
How Well Will Those Bluegums Grow? By Rebecca Thyer
In the past 10 years many bluegum plantations have been on cleared farmland where little, if any, plantation performance data existed. In a business where the ability to predict wood production is fundamental, it meant relying on other sites’ histories. A range of empirical-based growth models helped predict production based on previous performance, but predicting plantation production on new land was a ‘best bet’ based on experience in other regions. Recognising an industry need for a system that would help plantation managers produce more comprehensive future scenarios, Ensis – the joint Australia-New Zealand forestry research group – developed CABALA. It is designed to assist optimisation of wood yield by improving forestry managers’ ability to factor in economic and environmental considerations when making bluegum investment and management decisions. For Great Southern Plantations, which manages more than 110,000 hectares throughout Australia, CABALA has proved a very valuable part of the decision-making process, says Gavin Ellis, general manager forestry. “As a process-based model (in contrast to empirical models), CABALA allows insight into plantation performance in new regions where actual plantation performance data may be minimal or non-existent,” he says. “This is very important because the great majority of plantation development over the past 10 years has occurred in agricultural areas where plantations have not been grown previously. “It also allows for increased accuracy and due diligence in our productivity predictions by allowing us to input actual average rainfall data specific to land targeted for plantation development.” Using physiological and daily climate inputs to produce information to help make management decisions is a key benefit of CABALA, says Ensis scientist Don White. “Its use of daily information is one of its strengths,” he says. “Other systems run on monthly data broken down into daily data, which does not give accurate information. “For example, if an area’s monthly rainfall is 20 millimetres, it is important to know whether this arrives all in one day or as a bit each day because both lead to different scenarios.” CABALA’s unique predictive capacity comes from its combination of tree-growth modelling and forest health and management. Another Ensis scientist, Dr Michael Battaglia, says that by understanding trees’ basic building blocks, such as photosynthesis and nutrient cycles – physical principles that do not vary over time – risks such as drought can be better understood. “If you want to optimise the selection and management of trees, you need to have a system that responds to all parts of a tree’s world. So we’ve tried to understand the broad way that trees grow and respond to their environment, and we’ve incorporated this into an easy-to-use modelling system.” The system is already used by three-quarters of the bluegum growers in temperate Australia, and radiata pine growers are also assessing it. For further information contact: |
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